Dollar demand surges as Chinese investors seek safe haven

The epicenter of global finance is witnessing an unanticipated shift. In an unforeseen turn of events, a growing wave of Chinese investors are making a beeline for dollar deposits and Hong Kong insurance.

This recent surge indicates the wary economic sentiment back home, painting a picture of an economy grappling with an ailing yuan and a recovery that is proving to be elusive.

The Exodus: China to Hong Kong

Mainland Chinese are scrambling to diversify their investments, predominantly toward dollar-denominated deposits and assets.

The keenness for offshore insurance policies in Hong Kong is noteworthy, with new premiums skyrocketing a whopping 2,686% to a staggering $9.6 billion in Q1 2023.

This trend is reflective of growing fears about the shaky foundation of China’s economy. A faltering consumer spending, an underperforming property market, and a languishing stock market, all contribute to this dimming confidence.

The surge has more than doubled the mainland Chinese holdings in Hong Kong and Macau wealth products, standing at 814 million yuan (around $110 million) since last year.

Insurance behemoths such as AIA Group, Prudential, and Manulife are witnessing an upswing in business, attributable to these mainland investors.

This mass exodus comes amidst growing concerns around China’s change in COVID-19 policy stance from zero-tolerance to living with the virus, unsettling investors who fear the economy’s fragility. Moreover, the ongoing Sino-U.S. tensions are pushing investors to seek a safer haven.

The Allure of the Dollar

Why the dollar, though? An obvious attraction is the higher yields that dollar deposits fetch in Hong Kong, compared to mainland China. The yield on a one-year dollar deposit in Hong Kong stands at an appealing 4%, in contrast to a modest 2.8% on the mainland.

Moreover, the wide gap between two-year U.S. and Chinese government bond yields, the widest in 16 years favoring the U.S., is another pull factor. The underwhelming performance of the Chinese stock market, in contrast to its global counterparts, only adds to the lure of the dollar.

Notwithstanding these favorable factors, the flood of Chinese capital into the dollar is not merely a result of attractive returns but a testament to the flagging confidence in the mainland economy.

This trend reveals the growing pessimism about China’s economic trajectory and increasing concerns about an uncertain future.

However, this shift in investor sentiment is not devoid of concerns. An earlier exodus of Chinese capital in 2016 led to tighter capital controls from Beijing and measures to limit insurance buying.

With the yuan looking increasingly frail, Chinese authorities have already begun steps to bolster the currency by selling dollars and promising to guard against the risks of large exchange rate movements.

The overarching caution, however, is unlikely to stem the outflow tide immediately. As investors continue to seek safety in diversified investments, they will remain watchful of their health and legacy needs.

The current circumstances reflect a more balanced approach to investments from the mainland visitors, according to Sami Abouzahr, head of investments and wealth solutions at HSBC in Hong Kong.

One thing is certain – in this grand chessboard of global finance, every move reverberates far beyond the immediate confines of the players involved.

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