bitcoin price analysisBitcoin price has increased 3.40 % in the past 24 hours reaching the 29.5K mark, with Ethereum following closely behind with an increase of 3% with the biggest gainers being Ripple’s XRP and Solana which have seen 6% increases in past 24 hours and surprisingly Bitcoin SV which has seen a surge of 22%. Even the price of Stacks (STX) has increased by 13.07% to $0.6051 in the past 24 hours,
The global crypto market capitalization is now over $1 trillion standing at $1.12 trillion, a 3.6% increase in one day. This has crypto fans and investors optimistic with some stating that if Bitcoin goes above 30K it will reach 56K by end of year.
So what is happening to the cryptocurrency market and why?
Bitcoin ETF
Many market experts predict that there will be an approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA. As per some report a Bitcoin ETF approval could help solve the crypto liquidity issue, generating $600 billion in new demand. Capriole Investments suggested that gold instantly sprung out of a bear market to generate a 350% return after gold ETF was approved.
Coinbase is confident that a U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded fund will be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, told CNBC on October 20th 2023.
U.S. Court of Appeals Circuit Judge Neomi Rao sided with Grayscale Investments in its case against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Aug. 29, many large institutions filed for ETFs. On Oct. 14, Grayscale was dealt another victory as the SEC reported it would not appeal this decision. The decision not to appeal may have led to Grayscale filing for a new spot Bitcoin ETF on Oct. 19.
Bharain based crypto broker and exchange CoinMENA Founder and CEO Talal Tabaa speaking to Cryptopolitan stated, “Following the fake ETF announcement, Bitcoin moved around 10% upwards in a very short period showing that there isn’t much Bitcoin up for sale at such prices assuming an ETF is approved. Bitcoin is not an interest bearing asset, so its performance this year in a high interest rate environment is impressive. I’d imagine we’ll see additional volatility as the ETF approval, delay or rejection (hopefully not) gets closer, along with the halving in 2024.”
The first final deadline for Bitcoin spot ETF approval or denial is set for January 10, 2024. Several other filings, including BlackRock’s, have their next deadlines scheduled for mid-January, with the latest potential deadline set for mid-March.”
No increase in interest rates
The other factor playing a role in the rise of crypto prices is that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not increase interest rates as long that inflation is down, Usually crypto prices are indirectly proportional to the rise in interest rates. So when interest rates go up crypto usually gets a beating and vice versa.
Ripple wins against U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Other good news supporting crypto is the news about the SEC dropping its charges against two top Ripple executives. The case was dismissed on October 19th after the regulator and Ripple agreed to end this matter.
Despite this the state of New York has filed a lawsuit against Digital Currency Group, and its subsidiary Genesis Global Capital along with crypto exchange Gemini alleging fraud to the tune of more than $1 billion.
Bitcoin Halving
The next Bitcoin halving is projected to take place in April 2024, and analysts continue to debate whether or not the event will produce bullish outcomes for BTC price this time. Through Bitcoin’s 14 years of cyclical history, all of its returns and more were accounted for in the 12–18 month period following each Halving. Investing in the 4-6 months prior to each Halving saw even greater 12 month performance in 2020.
CEO of NMB Fintech, first global regulated DeFi institution under Bahrain central bank supervision, Waseem Mamlouk states, “ As a matter of fact, there are two immediate causes, and they are somewhat related, but at the same time we have a global Geo political situation, which is heating up on a number of fronts, and we also have a number of financial instruments about to launch on this limited product, which is going to take up a lot of volume in general, and so those who are offering the products must create an inventory of BTC by buying it at different price levels. If you like, you can call this the market maker effect and I would also add that when Larry Flink of BlackRock mentioned that we are experiencing a flight to quality it is in fact, very true because there is almost zero counterparty risk with Bitcoin and in fact, it is zero, unless it is in custody buy some service or placed on an exchange somehow.”
Money printing
Money printing is coming. According to a tweet from Lark Davis better known as TheCryptoLark He states,” Bitcoin ETF is coming. Bitcoin halving is coming. Money printing is coming. Are you ready?”
America’s federal budget deficit appears to have roughly doubled over the year to $2 trillion, a surprising jump given the strength of the economy. The Federal Reserve faces potential policy pitfalls ahead as it wrestles with how to respond to investor angst about the US government’s $33.5 trillion mountain of debt.
Concerns about America’s fiscal future have already contributed to a run-up in US bond yields that has surprised policymakers and prompted them to consider postponing for now plans for another interest-rate increase.
But it’s not just the mounting supply of Treasury securities that’s spooked investors. It’s also weakening demand. Many investors worry that the two biggest foreign holders of US debt, China and Japan, will scale back their purchases.
These fears of money printing are also increasing with the wars both in Israel and Ukraine. On October 20th Biden requested from congress an additional $14 billion to fund support for Israel.
Even gold ETFs are rising as investors consider gold to be a safe haven during uncertain geopolitical climates as it is a borderless asset, the same can be said of crypto.
Less Bitcoin on crypto exchanges
Bitcoin on exchanges continues to drop coinciding with Bitcoin price gains, the BTC supply on exchanges continues to remain below the Sept 4th monthly peak. Exchanges have shed over 70,000 BTC since that monthly peak. As such the market perceives coins leaving crypto exchanges as a bullish signal; given traders withdraw their BTC typically when they want to hold it in self-custody long-term. On Oct. 19, long-term Bitcoin holders hit 76% of all BTC ownership for the first time in history.
According to Mamlouk, “It’s never been a better time in recent months than now to be long on Bitcoin and many big shorts have been taken out in this most recent move which will become strong support going forward so that the old band up to 28K has now become strong support from 28K up to the 32K level. As it is a volatile asset, because of the extremely limited supply, we will get gyrations in either direction. However, the overall move is confirmed up at this point, and we have the halving as well as the actual launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which will be buying physical Bitcoin ahead of us where all signs are pointing to end of 23 and beginning of 24 for their official launch, and there will be many of them. No one wants to be left behind so the race is on to create a book for these future developments.”
Mamlouk confirms that even Bahrain NBM Fintech is planning an ETF. He states, “We are planning to launch a Bitcoin ETF product to be dual listed in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi.”
So could we be seeing the beginning of a bull run as the cold winter sets on in most parts of the world? We just might!
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