Best Twitter thread of the day – August 16th

1/ 🚨Mid-year crypto crime update! 🚨

In this thread, we look into the effects that the market downturn has had on illicit #cryptocurrency activity. https://t.co/DdfHNjRotU

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022

2/ Through July 2022’s #cryptocurrency transaction volumes for both illicit and legitimate entities are tracking behind 2021. pic.twitter.com/ty536KdTLk

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022

3/ Overall, criminal activity appears to be more resilient in the face of price declines: Illicit volumes are down just 15% year over year, compared to 36% for legitimate volumes.

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022

4/ One type of crime type that’s fallen in 2022 is scams. Total scam revenue for 2022 currently sits at $1.6Bn, 65% lower than it was through the end of July in 2021, and this decline appears linked to declining prices across different currencies. pic.twitter.com/LDj3Io4Baz

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022

5/ Since Jan 2022, scam revenue has fallen more or less in line with Bitcoin pricing. And as we see on the chart below, it’s not just scam revenue falling — the cumulative number of individual transfers to scams so far in 2022 is the lowest it’s been in the past 4 years. pic.twitter.com/aeQgz1XcpH

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022

6/ Fewer people than ever are falling for #crypto scams. A reason for this could be that with asset prices falling, crypto scams—which typically present themselves as passive #crypto investing opportunities with enormous promised returns—are less enticing to potential victims.

— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) August 16, 2022

Welcome to your weekly quantitative edge in the #Bitcoin market.

As on every Monday, we are going to look at the lite version of the #Bitcoin Aggregate Risk Model.

1/🧵 pic.twitter.com/cyvEuUWpqX

— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022

Let's put our emotions aside and look at what the data tell us.

Currently, Risk Score equals 1.47

This is still a relatively low-risk environment if you are a long-term #Bitcoin investor.

2/🧵 pic.twitter.com/T0YIGznLSY

— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022

Risk Score has historically been lower only in 11.2% of the time.

3/🧵 pic.twitter.com/WwRuOKe7Xz

— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022

For geeks, here is a detailed look at percentiles.

4/🧵 pic.twitter.com/kJ7Zi7Z78S

— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022

If you find my weekly updates valuable, please consider donating a retweet. It will help me grow as an analyst 🤝

Lastly, have a great Monday folks 😉

5/🧵

— Mikołaj Zakrzowski (@StackSmartly) August 15, 2022