BitcoinGalaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has offered insights into the trajectory of Bitcoin, suggesting a forthcoming correction before a potential resumption of its upward trend. This prediction aligns with the current market sentiment, which anticipates adjustments in Bitcoin’s value amidst its overall positive trajectory.
Novogratz’s analysis sheds light on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, highlighting the importance of considering corrections as part of its broader upward trend.
Michael Novogratz warns of impending Bitcoin dip
In a recent Bloomberg TV interview, Michael Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicted that the flagship cryptocurrency would endure a momentary slump before soaring to new heights.
Novogratz, a seasoned investor in the cryptocurrency field, believes Bitcoin may fall to the mid-$50,000 level during a broader consolidation phase following its remarkable gain this year, which witnessed a more than 40% increase.
According to the crypto market watch, the increase was mostly driven by the successful introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see some correction and consolidation, but I’m very loath to pick a Bitcoin high because I really do believe this is price discovery,” Novogratz said, emphasizing the continuous inquiry into BTC’s underlying value.
The current price increase, fuelled by the legalization of spot BTC ETFs in the United States, has pushed Bitcoin into a “price discovery” phase, drawing new investors. This inflow of purchasers has considerably fueled Bitcoin’s price increase.
However, Novogratz cautioned that the market’s present leverage levels, particularly among millennials and Gen Z investors who are “chasing highs,” suggest that a correction is likely.
“You’ve got a lot of millennials and Gen Z YOLOing it, and they all will get some of that money and a lot of ’em will get wiped out,” he said.
He noted that while some investors may profit from the situation, many could suffer large losses if the market falls.
Novogratz warned that the market has grown extremely frothy, with ordinary investors leveraging their positions to unsustainable levels. He cautioned that many investors, particularly millennials and Gen Z traders, could suffer losses in such a volatile market.
Bitcoin market performance
At the time of the interview, the digital currency was trading at approximately $60,700, riding the surge of its recent gains. At the time of this writing, the value of Bitcoin (BTC) stands at $62,174.67, reflecting a 0.3% surge from one hour ago and a 1.1% surge since the previous day. As of today, Bitcoin has gained 21.8% in value when compared to its value seven days ago.
Presently, the global market cap of cryptocurrencies stands at $2.45 trillion, reflecting a change of 2.49% over the last twenty-four hours and 118.38% over the past year.
At present, BTC holds a market cap of $1.22 trillion, signifying a dominance of 49.89%. Stablecoins, meanwhile, have a market cap of $144 billion, or 5.86 percent of the total crypto market capitalization.
In spite of transient fluctuations, Novogratz maintains an optimistic outlook regarding the long-term viability of Bitcoin, attributing it to the possible inflow of wealth from baby boomers into the crypto sector.
Considering that baby boomers control an estimated $85 trillion in wealth, a marginal reallocation of 1% to 3% of their holdings towards Bitcoin could substantially invigorate the valuation of this digital currency.
“3% of that is two and a half trillion. The whole market cap of Bitcoin is only a little more than 1.2 trillion,” he said.
The 2021 and 2024 bull run difference
Novogratz elaborated on market dynamics by noting the disparity in leverage levels between the current state of affairs and the bull run of 2021.
He noted that large institutional participants are presently less leveraged than retail traders, who are overleveraged, particularly via offshore cryptocurrency trading platforms that provide considerable leverage. “The big institutional players have less leverage right now… but retail still loves leverage,” according to him.
Novogratz asserts that this situation establishes the foundation for possible “washouts,” in which the market experiences a substantial decline followed by a period of stability and a subsequent resumption of its ascent.
The crypto entrepreneur cautioned that such leverage can introduce market volatility, stating, “You’re going to see this boom-bust in the short run with an overall really positive trend as people just keep deciding to allocate some of their portfolios to Bitcoin.”
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