The S&P 500 Index has surged 7% at the start of 2024, following a remarkable 24% rise in 2023, catching analysts off guard. In response, several Wall Street firms have revised their forecasts upward, with five already lifting their targets for the S&P 500 Index. Notably, Goldman Sachs Group and UBS have revised their predictions twice since December.
The driving force behind this rally is the dominance of Wall Street firms, particularly companies like Nvidia Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., and Microsoft Corp., which are at the forefront of AI technology. This connection to AI’s transformative potential in the global economy has propelled these stocks forward, dragging major indexes along with them.
Wall Street firms’ financial results and analyst sentiment
Financial results from Wall Street giants have exceeded expectations, with earnings per share for the top seven companies rising a combined 59% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Even analysts previously skeptical of the market rally are now becoming believers, lifting their forecasts to keep pace with the ongoing surge.
Economic strength, coupled with signals from the Federal Reserve indicating prolonged higher interest rates, has surprised many analysts. The likelihood of a recession in the next year has diminished significantly, dropping to 40%, the lowest level since 2022. However, this optimism has led to discomfort among some analysts, who remain cautious about the rally’s sustainability.
Analyst concerns and valuations
Despite the rally, some analysts remain wary, citing concerns about market valuations. Savita Subramanian from Bank of America Corp. maintains a year-end target of 5,000 for the S&P 500, expressing reservations about the market’s high valuations. Others, like John Stoltzfus from Oppenheimer Asset Management, are waiting for further confirmation before revising their forecasts, wary of the rapid capitulation of bearish sentiment.
While some naysayers attribute the gains to sentiment and positioning, analysts like Jonathan Golub from UBS emphasize the underlying fundamentals, including strong earnings and economic conditions. As the rally continues, analysts face the challenge of justifying their forecasts in a market environment characterized by declining recession risks and robust earnings revisions.
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