BitGo CEO foresees SEC rejection of Bitcoin ETF proposalsBitcoin has been a popular topic in the crypto space amid recent events that have seen its price rally up and down the crypto market. It’s evident that cryptocurrencies are subject to influence from external factors and other macroeconomic events. According to Galaxy, Bitcoin’s price is set to expect a 74% increase in its market price in a single year.
The report suggests that BTC will increase in 2024 after the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Currently, these spot BTC ETFs have been widely welcomed and anticipated since they provide essential tools that allow trading of Bitcoin in real-time without actually having to own the digital currency.
Bitcoin is expected to surge next year
In a blog post on October 24 by Galaxy Digital, a crypto investment firm, stated that BTC’s price will increase by 74.1% in its first year after Bitcoin ETFs are approved in the United States.
Such an increase will mean the assets price rise to levels over $59,000, just ten thousand shy of its all-time high. Moreover, Galaxy noted the increase to be fostered by the bitcoin exchange-traded funds launch without factoring in the second-order effects.
Charles Yu, a Galaxy Digital researcher, estimates the BTC ETF market to be tagged at $14.4 trillion after its launch within a year. The percentage increase he emphasized was based on the digital asset’s market price and was an analysis of the potential price impact of increased fund inflows.
This will be attributed to using ETFs as a baseline for the spot BTC exchange-traded funds products. Based on Yu’s analysis, BTC would witness a 6.2% increase in the first month after the ETF launch. This will be followed by a balanced correction that would realize a 3.7% monthly increase in the 12th month later.
According to Galaxy Digital, the first month would obtain a net inflow of Bitcoin investment that would total $10.5 billion. Additionally, this would dial down to a $6.2 billion inflow by the end of the 12th month after the first-ever ETF launch in the United States.
ETF market impact if approved
Yu analyzed Bitcoin’s market data from September 30 in order to come up with his prediction on the digital currency’s market movement. Following his interpretation of the data, his findings predict the BTC price would hit $59,200.
Yu’s findings align with predictions made by other Bitcoin data analysis experts. Matrixport, a digital asset financial service firm, reported a similar piece on October 19 by its head of research, Markus Thielen.
He predicted Bitcoin’s price to gain momentum after the approval of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. Some of the figures he mentions is the potential of BTC to reach levels between $42,000 and $56,000.
Yu went ahead and addressed the impact of the first Bitcoin ETF approval in the US addressing market size. He estimated the ETF’s market size to reach $26.5 trillion in the second year after its approval and a staggering $38.6 trillion in the third year. This suggests a 60% increase in ETF market size in under 3 years, accounting for a 30% increase in the first year and ending with 80% in the third.
However, Yu elaborated that an opposite ruling based on the ETF application denial or delay would affect his price prediction. He mentioned that his figures were Conservative and did not include the second-order effects from the awaited spot BTC exchange-traded funds approval, by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
He said, “In the near-term, we expect other global/international markets to follow the U.S. in approving + offering similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to a wider population of investors.” He added that 2024 would be a huge year for Bitcoin based on the ETF inflows if approved. He also mentioned the April halving impact on the asset’s price.
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